Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 9.696852 11.984287 14.552774 17.629968 21.194993 25.173764 29.927694
2025-12-28 6.606933 9.537157 13.216292 18.083403 24.254197 31.715827 41.309573
2026-01-04 4.844361 7.951322 12.217474 18.303472 26.542575 37.078722 51.312301
2026-01-11 3.745004 6.892886 11.563856 18.659193 28.784212 42.309485 61.281026
2026-01-18 3.017199 6.168712 11.180929 19.218696 31.206266 47.801511 71.791687
2026-01-25 2.298121 5.255995 10.311994 18.874229 32.208042 51.309275 79.717382
2026-02-01 1.849522 4.692436 9.878399 19.089134 33.971083 55.908339 89.305714
2026-02-08 1.424690 4.047835 9.175272 18.740519 34.779674 59.101326 96.983177
2026-02-15 1.073826 3.443644 8.420843 18.176867 35.144664 61.588440 103.682171
2026-02-22 0.907374 3.209046 8.324164 18.737536 37.351656 66.953614 114.829853
2026-03-01 0.704562 2.810006 7.815974 18.466564 38.110075 70.068980 122.682213
2026-03-08 0.564602 2.527020 7.495892 18.498753 39.364936 73.998522 131.900282
2026-03-15 0.389249 2.063948 6.699929 17.545747 38.899596 75.294713 137.383665
2026-03-22 0.317809 1.911133 6.612353 18.038369 41.114952 81.151096 150.373071
2026-03-29 0.250107 1.731342 6.413795 18.260853 42.827547 86.231084 162.303438
2026-04-05 0.200139 1.591306 6.286523 18.616125 44.805082 91.838467 175.280745
2026-04-12 0.164719 1.493158 6.253024 19.174634 47.207292 98.274825 189.831502
2026-04-19 0.117858 1.291350 5.859633 18.830787 47.772963 101.495620 199.143490
2026-04-26 0.091176 1.177607 5.707770 19.045305 49.475926 106.798906 212.110304
2026-05-03 0.063391 1.017299 5.353209 18.697318 49.970658 109.922255 221.462712
2026-05-10 0.041236 0.857232 4.942299 18.134688 49.949722 112.076307 229.199610
2026-05-17 0.033142 0.812744 4.949787 18.694341 52.395526 118.906928 245.245021
2026-05-24 0.021997 0.705573 4.672300 18.423860 52.980200 122.248480 255.276960